A Comparison of Seven Methods for Obtaining Subjective Descriptions of Judgmental Policy 1 RICHARD
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چکیده
When subjective descriptions of judgmental policies have been compared to statistical descriptions of policies, investigators have repeatedly found an imperfect correspondence between subjective and statistical measures of importance. There is reason to believe, however, that these findings may be due to the use of inadequate procedures for obtaining subjective weights. The present study, therefore, compared seven methods for obtaining subjective descriptions of cue importance. Subjective policy descriptions were found to correspond reasonably well to statistical policy descriptions for both a three-cue and a seven-cue task, but the seven methods did not dlffer. All methods yielded more accurate predictions of actual judgments than an arbitrary policy of equal weights on all cues. Most judgment tasks require a decision maker to integrate information from several sources to arrive a t a single judgment about an environmental criterion. Hammond and Summers (1972) have reviewed research with multiple-cue tasks and concluded that a subject's achievement in such situations depends on both knowledge about a valid policy for integrating task information and control of the application of that policy. There is ample evidence that the latter objective, reliable application or control of a judgmental policy, is difficult for many decision makers to But there has been little research directed a t establishing how well a decision maker understands the policy he is using. The correspondence between subjective estimates of the relative influence of different cues on judgments and statistical weights yielded by
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